I spent the better part of the last quarter of 2007 alerting my flour customers to the impending reality of steep increases in the cost of their flour. For my Organic flour clients I added my concern that their annual requirements might not be available...AT ANY PRICE. The predictable response from most of my long-term clients was a measured disbelief accompanied by no great sense of urgency. As I look back now in the early days of the New Year I still have a difficult time comprehending that the price for milling quality wheat has increased 100% and Organic Hard Red Spring wheat is unavailable...AT ANY PRICE.           

      We have arrived at this point quite predictably when you take in to account the following phenomena: Less than stellar crop production from diverse growing areas around the globe, coinciding with a sea change in food consumption patterns of emerging middle classes in Mexico and China. Meat comprises a larger part of their diet and it takes 8kg of grain to produce 1kg of beef. The grain supply in the U.S. was further exacerbated by the diversion of many acres from food grains to corn production for the emerging alternative fuel Ethanol. The final coup de gras was delivered to the American consumer by the erosion of the Dollar. In a world vying for a diminished supply of milling quality wheat it is hard to compete with an E.U. buyer who has 50% better buying power.           

      It is my belief that this new paradigm – more expensive food prices – is here to stay. Perhaps we will be able to finally cut ourselves loose from farm subsidies for a few large producers and realize the benefits that accrue from a broad based rise in incomes across the farm belt. I am anxious to see how this year unfolds and how the American consumer reacts to the new food reality. Fasten your seat belts...You're in for a bumpy ride!